MN LAX Thoughts 5/6
Had a spare moment to write today and since “you’re only as good as your last at bat” I thought I’d keep the content moving - whether people like it or not. Since the DTA POLL dropped today there has been some epic discussion in the discord about the “proper” way to rank teams. Lets dive in:
First, lets explain what a poll is:
Noun: “the process of voting in an election (or our case team rankings)”
Verb: “To record the opinion or vote of”
There are generally three polls in collegiate sports (and now in MN HS LAX). You have the coaches poll (head coaches vote) based on, in theory, and eye test or actual scout of teams thev’ve seen. You have the AP Writers Poll (media and journalists) who vote more from a a journalistic point of view. In theory, less analysis of teams skills/dominance, and more about wins/losses/matchups. Then you have the RPI which is an algorithm that is based on multiple factors like top 5 wins, top 10 wins, losses to teams outside of the top 10, margin of victory/loss and strength of schedule. This creates an “unbiased” mathematical ranking that does not provide context (like injuries or outlier bad games)
A few gold nuggets:
AP and Coaches Polls are biased. Every human being sees the world differently and has a different set of values that they walk through daily life with. Not only can someone be biased towards a specific team (they may be a part of or just simply like) they could also value different aspects of sport and what stands out to them as great.
RPI does not account for eye test or context. It’s simply a mathematical equation.
Polls are for the most part meaningless and just create discussion and reference to people outside the lines of who is relevant. It provides anticipation and interest for matchups that, for the most part, do not matter in MN HS Sports (since everyone makes the playoffs)
This week we had the perfect trifecta. We had top 10 teams take down the # 1 team in consecutive weeks and a top 5 team with two top 10 wins, no top 5 wins, and large margin of victory on other games, stay undefeated. This is a classic Boise State Situation. Many top 10 teams playing/beating up on eachother vs a clearly really good team that has not been tested as much as some of the others (although still two top 10 wins is significant imo).
Well, Boise State (the Stillwater ponies) through the process of weird math and votes have found a way to leap frog to #1 with their 8-0 record in the Media Poll (DTA TOP 10), on the day they play the BSM red knights…a team that many feel still is the “best team” based on SOS and margin of victory and only one close “respectable” loss. LaxNumbers (RPI) would agree.
Pretty cool that we get to see it settled, so quickly, on the field tonight: the Math vs the Eyes.
What makes this most fun is this is seemingly a meaningless game from Conference/Section standpoint but the polls/rankings have made this one interesting.
In other weird polling fun… Prior Lake, who is also undefeated and just took down #1 Jefferson last week, is thinking, we have both an undefeated record, a top 5 win AND margin of victory against lower opponents. But, they havent played as many games so they get pushed down on the RPI to #3. And for the DTA Top 10… check this out:
Of the 14 voters this week:
Stillwater:
3 first place
8 second palce
1 third place
2 fourth place
Prior Lake:
6 first place
3 second place
4 third place
1 ninth place (I am not kidding)
BSM:
5 first place
3 second place
3 fourth place
3 fifth place
So…Stillwater had 11/14 votes in first or second, PL had 9/14 in first or second, and BSM had 8/14 in first and second. Thats how we get to these wacked out numbers and votes. And the 9th place vote pulled PL out of the top spot, despite having the most 1st place votes. The cumulative placement of the none FPVs helped leapfrog Stillwater to the top.
And here is the best part… BSM plays Stillwater tonight. BSM plays PL on May 18th, and PL plays Stillwater on May 23rd. So we are going to see these teams battle it out… and all three could end up in the state tournament.
Jefferson (#4), who also held a #1 spot last week and lost to PL, may get a rematch with them in the section playoffs as well.
It’s only May 6th and we have fireworks. GLTA tonight.