Quarterly Check In - Girls
Power ranking? That seemed to inspire a lot of passionate reaction when Teddy the Greek did it on the boys side, so we’ll see if he decides to make a graphic. Or not.
And is this really quarterly? We’ll see. Plan is to have 3 more of these (end of regular season, state preview and state review). Maybe we’ll do that. Or maybe only three. Or not.
They’re Back
Lakeville South
Not sure you can prove yourself as the top team in the land better than beating the two other teams in virtually everyone’s top 3, with you. Lakeville South did just that and did it convincingly. So, here we are, having South in the top tier…again, all by themselves…again.
Good, but Frustrating
Benilde St. Margaret’s, Prior Lake
High powered offenses, low goals against averages, new goalies, both got absolutely boat raced by Lakeville South.
Probably Think We Hate Them
Champlin Park, Minnetonka, Stillwater, Gentry
Well…we don’t hate them, and all four should be really good…good enough to be “Good, but Frustrating” but all have 1 more thing then just an ugly loss to the best team in MN. Let’s crack into these a little bit more:
Champlin Park: undefeated. Improved their SOS. Have added Elk River/Zimmerman and Maple Grove with their NWSC crossover games. Should be favored in all their games coming up, but are any of them enough to put them over any of the top 3, even if they win out? Not really if the top 3 win out (which is 100% a big ask, but could happen).
Stillwater: No shame in losing to Prior Lake. The White Bear Lake loss came as a surprise to…lots of people. They have more games coming that can trip them up. We were planning on keeping track of them to see how many games they’d send to running time…not to see if they’d win them.
Minnetonka: like CP, also undefeated. They are now getting into their tough part of their schedule and two of their wins were 1 goal wins (over ERZ and Buffalo). Lax numbers and their algo agree: they have Tonka at 13 in their rankings. Let’s see the next two weeks if the voters’ opinion or the math equation is going to be more correct on the Skippers
Gentry: Fell from the DTA top 10…as of this writing they are 10 on lax numbers. They beat the top 3 teams from WI (as of this writing):
Kettle Morraine 17-9: lax numbers ranked #2 in WI, #103 in USA Midwest. We were at this game - Gentry was clearly the better team that day, the score was not a fluke. They were better at every aspect of the game…honestly not as close as an 8 goal game suggests
Hudson 8-7: lax numbers ranked #1 in WI, #84 in USA Midwest. We were NOT at this game, but our East Side Source was and gave us a little insight into why this game was closer than we might have expected.
University School of Milwaukee 23-4: lax numbers ranked #3 in WI, #129 in USA Midwest. We were also NOT at this game, but this feels like it was a game that Gentry wanted to strut their stuff in, after the Hudson game…note that EP beat USM 24-11.
Because we have a few more games with MN team vs WI teams, we can start to draw some lines and conclusions from them. What we also have is Gentry’s toughest in state game to date: Orono. We love Orono (even if the crew doesn’t remember us being a card carrying member of their fan club) and they’ve beat both EP and Gentry by a goal. EP and Gentry have also smoked USM, so things feel equivalent.
OK moron - so why is Gentry in a higher spot in your power ranking then Orono and EP? Honestly, because we think they SHOULD be better than where we (and the rest of DTA) have ranked them and we won’t have a chance to see them prove us right, or wrong, on that until Section playoffs (they’ve got Simley, Hudson, Moorhead and Tartan 2X).
Poised to Make a Leap
CDH, East Ridge, Rosemount, Eden Prairie, Orono
What’s the difference between these teams and those in the tier one up? Right or wrong, they’re all roughly in the same spot as each other…these teams feel like they are building on some positivity, and the other teams have reasons to question. Maybe these teams are more flawed, but are trending up - thus they are poised to make a leap.
Confusing
Park, Maple Grove, Chanhassen, Edina, White Bear Lake, Elk River/Zimmerman, Blake, Woodbury, Hill-Murray
Man. We don’t know what to think of these teams…thus they are confusing. Let’s break them down a little.
Park (5-1, lax numbers 9)
Beat Simley by 3 and WBL by 5
Lost to Stillwater by 6
48% of their goals are scored by 1 player…and 68% scored by 2 players (that seems really easy to game plan for the other teams in the top 10)
They got East Ridge, CDH and Woodbury coming up
Maple Grove (4-2, lax numbers 15)
Scored insane # of goals first 4 games
Offense slowed down in last two games (10 goals scored vs ERZ and 6 goals scored vs PL)
Have Chan, BSM, CP, and Wayzata coming up
Lost to EP by 1, beat ERZ by 1, and lost to PL by 12
Chanhassen (3-3, lax numbers 16)
Losses to PL (no shame), South (really no shame), and EP (section and conference rival)
Wins over Chaska, Waconia, and New Prague
INSANE schedule coming up…in order their last 7 games: Jefferson, Maple Grove, CDH, BSM, Stillwater, Orono, St. Louis Park
There’s a world where they win 1 of those games…and by the end of the year against SLP, they could be on a 6 game losing streak.
If they went 4-3, feels like they aren’t upset.
Edina (4-3, lax numbers 8)
DTA voters vs algo: bias vs math
Also…an insane schedule…in order their last 6 games: Buffalo, EP, Minnetonka, Hopkins, Lakeville South, Stillwater
Given Buffalo’s recent 1 goal OT lose to ‘Tonka, each of those teams could beat Edina and 4/6 would be favored going into the game against them
White Bear Lake (4-3, lax numbers 17)
Lost to CDH, Park, Woodbury
Beat H-M, Mounds View, Forest Lake…and STILLWATER
Enough said
Elk River/Zimmerman (5-2, lax numbers 18)
Lost to ‘Tonka and Maple Grove by 1 goal apiece
Toughest remaining opponent: Champlin Park
How real are they?
Blake (4-3, lax numbers 21)
Beat Farmington only by 1
Lost to BSM only by 5, but then lost to Wayzata by 2…and lost to Edina by 7
Cannot figure out what they’re going to do and when they’re going to do it
Woodbury (3-3, lax numbers 19)
Started off 1-3 (losses to BSM, H-M, and CDH)
Beat Irondale, Forest Lake and White bear lake (2 days before they beat frickin’ Stillwater)
They’ve got Stillwater, East Ridge, Simley, Wayzata and Park left
Hill-Murray (5-2, lax numbers 23)
Lost to WBL by 10
Beat Woodbury by 5
Lost to Rosemount by 10
Should be over .500 for remaining games…and COULD win out)
Scoring a TON of goals
What About Us?
Chisago Lakes (7-0, lax numbers 24), Hopkins (5-2, lax numbers 31), Southwest Christian (6-0, lax numbers 22), Duluth (8-1, lax numbers 49), and St. Croix Prep (6-1, lax numbers 41)
Really want to see where these squads go. They can compete. They all might be under the radar. They all might get blown out against a top 10 team.
What Are We Doing Here?
Mahotmedi, Lakeville North, Bloomington Jefferson, Wayzata