Section Review: June 3 and a Look at the Section Semifinals
Guys – by the time they record the Thursday pod, we are going to know who is going to state!
June 3 – Section 1 went chalk in their SF, South won 18-0 and Farmington won 12-8. For the purposes of this article, we’re still going to talk about the entire semifinal.
Section 1
#1 Lakeville South vs #4 Owatonna – Saturday 6/3
#2 Farmington vs #3 Lakeville North – Saturday 6/3
Nothing really has changed as this section has gone per the seeds, and there’s really nothing to talk about. Lakeville South will win this section and make state again without any resistance. If only someone had ranted recently about how inept the MSHSL, maybe they would have brought this up too…
Winner: Lakeville South
Section 2
#1 Chanhassen vs #4 Orono – Monday 6/5
#2 Eden Prairie vs #3 Minnetonka – Monday 6/5
This is WAY more interesting than Section 1. Recall that Orono has scored 20 and 24 goals (both against Chaska) in consecutive games. They know how to score goals. Will it be enough to overtake Chan? Their game against them on May 23 (20-6 in favor Chan) suggests otherwise. Why not though?
For the second game…this SHOULD be a good one. EP looked a little pedestrian beating Wayzata 10-9 on May 2…and then they’ve ripped off 6/7 wins (only falling to PL 20-14), including beating Minnetonka 16-11 on May 11. EP has scored in double digits in every game except for the first 2.
Tonka had a bad start to May (losing to Edina 17-3 and EP 16-11) and then had 4 easier ones to finish the season.
So – who wins this one? We are sticking with our pre-section prediction: Chan over Orono, EP over Tonka and then EP over Chan.
Winner: Eden Prairie
Section 3
#1 Park vs #5 Simley – Tuesday 6/6
#2 CDH vs #3 East Ridge – Tuesday 6/6
Simley beat Woodbury…you know, the only team to beat #1 seed Park. So yeah…Section 3 is keeping it wild.
Feels like this is Park’s to lose, so will they? Not in the semis…
CDH vs East Ridge. CDH beat ER 18-8 on May 10 and things feel so different since then. Losses to Chan, Park and Buffalo must have CDH reeling. East Ridge…kinda the same…since the CDH loss, they lost to Park, won 1 goal games against a plucky WBL and a stinky Hill Murray, beat Visitation and had a classic FEC crackdown on the Hedge Fund. Feels like a CDH win, but really don’t feel confident on it.
That means, yeah. Park is going to win this section. Like we said.
Winner: Park of Cottage Grove
Section 4
#1 Stillwater vs #5 Mahtomedi – Monday 6/5
#2 White Bear Lake vs #3 Gentry Academy – Monday 6/5
How does everyone else feel about Stillwater being #3 in the latest coach’s poll? 1 goal win over Woodbury, beat Mounds View by 14, lost 10-4 to South in a real messy game, beat Edina by 1, and beat Mounds View by 14 again.
Not great. But their losses are to Prior Lake, Park, and South. They beat Edina, ER, WBL, CDH, and Rosemount. Its maybe right, but feels like A LOT is hanging on that Edina win…which is no doubt.
Shout out to Maht for working over H-M.
And now we need to talk about Platinum Medallion member, Gentry and their match up against WBL. Gentry’s highest ranked win per LaxNumbers? #26 Simley (not bad). The average of their ranks? 56. They’ve played two teams ranked 80 or higher (MPLS and Waconia). White Bear Lake is ranked 20..so Gentry should slaughter them (as the #4 rank). We think Gentry will win.
And then…Stillwater vs Gentry in the final. We still are taking Stillwater. Got to wonder though if Gentry is going to be pushing it for an upgrade from Vadnais Heights to…Stillwater for state.
Winner: Stillwater
Section 5
#1 Maple Grove vs #4 Wayzata – Monday 6/5
#2 BSM vs #3 Blake - Monday 6/5
The Maple Grove train continues against Katie’s least favorite team, Wayzata. We agree.
BSM vs Blake – killer Bs. BSM just too much HP for the Bears to handle. Curious to see if their April match up (13-10, BSM) reflects what we see.
And that brings us to MG vs BSM. We are sticking with our “upset” pick in BSM. We think the Chan loss was a wakeup call for maybe a team a little overconfident – can certainly give the coaches something to snap the players attention back into focus.
Winner: BSM
Section 6
#1 Prior Lake vs #4 Bloomington Jefferson – Tuesday 6/6
#2 Edina vs #3 Rosemount – Tuesday 6/6
Jefferson is 10-4, with losses to Rosemount (11-9), Edina (11-2), BSM (17-4), and Blake (12-8). Obviously, they hang their hat on that Chanhassen win. Feels like they’re keep it close0ish in the first half, but the depth of Prior Lake will win the day.
We have not been very positive about Rosemount this year. But, to paraphrase a famous podcaster, Rosemount’s Rosemount. The story hasn’t changed though: no quality wins and some less than quality performances. We’ve explained this before. They’re mega young and will be a problem the next few years.
So, we get a section 6 rematch: PL vs Edina. Edina is senior heavy. PL is in deep. We like PL in the rematch, but this is NOT a running time game – like a 3-4 goal win for the Lakers.
Winner: Prior Lake
Section 7
#1 Champlin Park vs #4 Chisago Lakes – Tuesday 6/6
#2 Andover vs #3 Centennial – Tuesday 6/6
The hottest social team in the business (but not the OG – we see you Moorhead) gets a chance to ruin one of the remaining undefeated teams left.
Andover vs Centennial – gotta be a great game. Centennial beat the 6-3, but Andover got the nod seeding wise. That can’t sit right. Defense will win the day. And so will…Centennial…but not the section.
Winner: Centennial
Section 8
#1 Elk River/Zimmerman vs #4 Buffalo – Tuesday 6/6
#2 STMA vs #3 Moorhead – Tuesday 6/6
Does this section have the best two semifinal games? ERZ should have been seeded 1…but #4 for Buffalo? Since losing to Tonka 8-7 (no shame), they ran it up on SSR 27-0, beat media darling CDH 15-12, and cast the Avada Kedavra curse on the Monti Magic. Best 1 vs 4 game of the lot. We pick ERZ, but pay attention (and remember we picked Buffalo to win section 8 in the preseason).
That brings up to STMA/Moorhead. STMA beat Buffalo, but lost to Moorhead. They only beat Shako by 1. They are VERY beatable.
Now Spud Wagon…first – shout out to Sydney Martinson for calling us out. Now…we did not say the upset happened, we were only alerting because a 6 was beating a 3 seed. But Moorhead’s back stiffened, tied and then won in OT, thanks to Miss Martinson. You all deserve all the attention. We are rooting for a Moorhead win, so we’re going to say it: ERZ vs Moorhead – brain says the Elks take the win, but our heart is pulling for the Spuds.
Winner: Elk River/Zimmerman